Caffeinated Politics

I suggest the most interesting and consequential news story this week was the growing divide between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.  I noticed that national evening news broadcasts on ABC and NBC, while giving time to fluff stories and reports because they had videos of crashes and fires, could not provide viewers the level of coverage that this story demanded.  On the one hand, the UAE is leaving OPEC, and on the other hand, the Saudis are pulling back on grandiose financing for an array of projects.

The dealmaking and planning that envisioned the Gulf region to be a tourist mecca with AI commanding business ventures and American capital powering investments seems to have stalled.  The Trump Administration had big plans, some aboveboard and others deeper down and likely sinister, with wealth flowing to influential billionaires. All that seems to have hit a steep incline.

I mocked and scorned Trump in 2025 when he made outlandish claims and accepted outrageous promises from Gulf states about the investments coming to our nation from places like Saudi Arabia. Trump is easily played when people fluff him, so while he was thinking an American economic boom was forthcoming from Gulf money, many people tethered to reality were snickering.

You will forgive me if I laugh about the fact that the Saudis sovereign wealth fund has left LIV Golf. I detested the attack on the PGA, and at my desk this morning, I am asking exactly what was gained by the $5 million from the kingdom. Trump backed the wrong wedge iron and had to publicly eat that loss. Yesterday, Trump even had to ask for the reintroduction of LIV Golf players onto the PGA Tour. That was a sweet moment for me.

Trump’s Iran war had also raised genuine concern in Gulf states, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. What investors are willing to ante up billions of dollars for data centers when Iran can build a drone for a pittance and strike at will?  Add to the lunacy of Trump’s attacks on Iran and ask about the words and tone when he visited the Arab nation last year.  Recall the utopian dream destination for wealthy tourists and uber-rich investors? Now consider a burning hotel and a bombed airport at the hands of Iran, and then think about the mood of the rich and famous. 

For over a decade, the divide between the UAE and the Saudis has been reported and studied. What has not been missed is how, over the past nearly ten weeks, the issues and personality differences with the notables in each government have risen. Just one more consequence of this unnecessary and reckless war. (Shhh, don’t let the MAGA base know about this and ruin their weekend. Needing to find a book with maps and asking how to spell UAE.)

There is a good article in Foreign Affairs about this international situation.

But it seems increasingly likely that tensions will escalate. Given this reality, the United States and Europe should be careful not to take a side in the Gulf rivalry. The geography of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE affords them outsize influence over oil markets and critical trade routes; it is important to keep both happy. If Washington or European capitals show a preference for one side, they will lose influence and investment opportunities with the other. Worse still, they could undermine regional stability. If one Gulf power feels its status is slipping, it might lean toward China, potentially giving it preferential treatment in shipping, investment, and military basing rights.

The past four American presidents have pledged to do less in the Middle East, only to remain active. Trump would be wise to keep a strong U.S. presence in the region. Together with European leaders, he should hedge between the two Gulf countries. He should also note that mending their division could require a more personal touch. Some observers say that in the early days of MBS’s tenure as crown prince, he was a protégé of MBZ’s. Although that is likely an exaggeration, the two men were on good terms. Today, each leader sees the other as insufficiently respectful, and their jealousies feed into the broader rivalry. A rapprochement between these two men could go a long way toward stabilizing the region