Caffeinated Politics

Welcome to the Super Bowl for political nerds. Every two years, starting in 1980, I have put my thoughts together about the November elections. Since the internet era began, I have posted my predictions online the Sunday before the balloting. My enthusiasm for Election Night never wavers. This year I am more excited than ever, given the enormous stakes for our nation. Now, as Jackie Gleason would say, “And awaaay we go!”

As voters head to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections, deep exhaustion is pushing rank-and-file citizens toward a major political awakening. This national reaction is fueled by growing frustration with systemic corruption involving Donald Trump, his family, and many of his sycophants in Washington (the increase in the number of people polled who have stated corruption is a national concern has very much intrigued me) as well as a lack of moral leadership and basic decency in government. This widespread public discontent is heavily exacerbated by the economic instability stemming from aggressive tariff policies and the onset of a devastating new war in Iran, both of which have introduced severe uncertainty into daily life. With inflation and global conflict weighing heavily on ordinary households, this blogging desk is ready to put its final predictions on the line. Significant blowback will hit the ballot box as voters increasingly seek to punish feckless, absurd incumbent Republicans and demand an urgent return to stability, ethics, and common-sense governance, including government oversight.

United States Senate

The question is whether there will be a Blue Wave on Election Night or a BLUE WAVE.

Overall, the Senate map favors the GOP, with Michigan offering the rare Democratic-held seat where Republicans are poised to strike. The deep angst in the farming regions of the Midwest and Central Plains will be key to what happens for both parties. I feel no empathy for a farmer who voted three times for Donald Trump and now finds his bottom line upended. Did that same voter care about the plight of Brown people before his diesel prices increased? Did ICE raids that have spread fear and include the rounding up of American citizens bring a ripple of concern to the farmers who we are now supposed to feel such concern for as energy prices have skyrocketed? I don’t think there is any coherent way to predict what a long-term, thoughtless farm voter will do this year, even with dollars flowing out of their business. I am not overly confident that enough red farm voters of that stripe will see the light and vote for Democrats. But I do think there are more than enough independent voters who will make a difference on Tuesday

Since early June, I have repeated three words to anyone who stopped by for a chat. Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. Newspapers and letters to the editor underscored that something angry was brewing in the Heartland. Many in Kansas also echo that mood, with a well-known minister hoping to steer them to victory. In Iowa, Josh Turek, a state representative and four-time Paralympic medalist, will defeat Ashley Hinson. But Pastor Adam Hamilton will not defeat incumbent Roger Marshall. I cannot fathom Kansas electing a Democratic senator. I simply do not think it is possible.

When Graham Platner tried to claim he did not know the meaning of the Nazi SS skull-and-crossbones symbol that he had tattooed on his chest, it was then incumbent on Maine voters to demonstrate they wanted honor over whatever line of baloney they were being asked to swallow from the candidate. Those voters who denied seeing what was in front of their faces leading up to the primary need to be held accountable for electing Susan Collins. Everything else that unfolded is the result of voters who were too addled by Platner’s populism to remember that pragmatic politics always has its day.

The same goes for Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a man I truly think is impressive. A very educated man, and though correct in his views on Israel, Gaza, Palestinians, and the contours of the Middle East, he has rubbed against pragmatic politics, and it will prove costly. Hasan Piker was a toxic voice in Michigan‘s primary and needed a public rebuke. A Sister Souljah moment was teed up, but El-Sayed refused to rise to the occasion. The far left wanted a statewide example to prove that if they only had their type of socialist candidate, young voters and all those disaffected ones in the electorate could finally vote their hopes. The nation is watching to see whether what they told us was the way to win actually happens now. I think the African-American community in Michigan should have been better brought into the fold, as opposed to the angry voices surrounding Piker. The ugly anti-Muslim racism from Donald Trump and conservatives has been utterly vile. If there is one prediction I hope I am wrong about, it’s here, in Michigan. If for no other reason than to allow a person of the Muslim faith to have a seat in the Senate.

(I am delighted to have a new election-night data source from The New York Times. This year, they will provide the election’s demographic story like never before. They will report data to show a new, comprehensive portrait of how each key demographic group in the country voted. This project is called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates of U.S. House and Senate election results by age, race, education, and gender in every state. I suggest this will be most telling in explaining what happened in Michigan‘s Senate race with the Black vote.)

Roy Cooper in North Carolina will be the first Democratic victory of the night, and when Jon Ossoff wins in Georgia, I predict we are witnessing the growing of presidential timber. He is as perfect a candidate on the stump as you could ask for. Sherrod Brown will be elected in Ohio, partly due to the implosion of the rancid actions of state Republicans who thought applauding rape and denigrating a rape victim was a winning topic.

The biggest applause nationwide will come when James Dell Talarico takes the stage in Texas to accept his victory as a United States Senator. I live in the world of polling trends. I have been through months of tight polls, dead-even polls, then a 1- or 2-percent advantage. Then a 2- or 3-percent gain for the Democratic candidate, and now 4- and 5-percent trends. At our home on the Madison isthmus, we are flying two flags on Election Day. One of them is the Texas state flag. That is how much this race matters to me. We have been waiting so long to bring modernity to that state.

House of Representatives

I predict that Democrats gain 27 seats in the midterms. So many incredible races to watch Tuesday night, and I’ve selected a small handful for prime attention that may indicate larger trends nationwide. I will list them in alphabetical order by state.

Arizona’s 6th District.

Democrat Joanna Mendoza has paced ahead of Republican Juan Ciscomani by roughly 4-5 points in the closing 20 days. My political bible, The Almanac of American Politics, shows that Ciscomani has overperformed in both of his previous elections. But neither election had the economic and ethical landscape he faces this cycle. I predict a democratic victory and an additional member of the LGBTQ caucus in Congress. Hispanic voters will be key as they make up a quarter of the electorate.

Colorado’s 8th District

This race will prove that bashing Hispanics for sport in GOP circles comes with a price tag for the party. Republican Gabe Evans, who narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, is seeking reelection against Democrat Manny Rutinel. She wins in part because this district stretches from Denver’s northern suburbs and includes Colorado’s largest Hispanic population.

Michigan’s 4th District

Why have I been following this seat in the midterms? It is a bellwether district for Democrats, who need to win places like this to control the House. In Ottawa County (and similar counties nationwide), Kamala Harris improved on Joe Biden’s 2020 margin in 2024. Affordability, health care, immigration, and the economy are central issues in these races, and with voting changes likely this cycle on those kitchen-table concerns, I predict a real upset. Sean McCann, a Democrat and citizen of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, is locked in a tight race against incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga, who has solidly defeated past contenders. McCann wins, and this bodes well for the party nationwide.

New York’s 17th District

Republican Mike Lawler is in a competitive reelection fight against Democrat Cait Conley, and he has a track record of winning his district when I’ve predicted in columns like this that he would be defeated. As he seeks a third term, I hope it’s charm time. Right? In years past, I have mentioned his problem with the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT. The deduction primarily benefits taxpayers in higher-tax states or those who own high-value properties, and Lawler has danced sprightly around the issue again. In this stressful economic period, I predict Conley goes to Congress.

Ohio’s 7th District

Wife beater goes down to defeat. What else do you want to know? Republican Max Miller gets smacked around by voters like he treated his wife. Democrat Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker and city council member, is elected. Character matters.

Texas’ 15th District

I bring this one to my list as another example of Hispanic votes sliding away from the GOP, after having secured so many of them in 2024. Republican Monica de la Cruz flipped the district red in 2022, running on border security. This year, she’s facing a tougher-than-expected challenge from Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, pictured above. Here’s the part we can all find galling. The district was redrawn in 2025 for partisan purposes and remains Republican-leaning, but Democrats will win back Latino voters. The GOP got too cocky by half in 2025, and this election will cost them dearly. Pulido wins. I want him to sing at his victory party. Shirtless. But that is just me.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

Never yell at teenage pages who work in the U.S. Congress.

Republican crank, and seriously weird Derrick Van Orden, approached teenage Senate pages lying on the Rotunda floor, taking photos of the ceiling, which I probably don’t need to remind my readers is a traditional activity for pages at the end of their service. He shouted profanities at them, calling them “jackasses” and “pieces of s—” and telling them to get off the floor. The voters in this slice of western Wisconsin know what to do with “pieces of s—” and they will flush Van Orden on Election Day. Democrat Rebecca Cooke wins solidly.

Governors

Ohio

This race for governor, in my view, has been instructive for the MAGA base. The creepy, vile, and disgusting types of behavior that Trump has used and endorses, when employed by other conservative candidates, find they wind up in the proverbial woodchipper. Vivek Ramaswamy ran a highly despicable ad featuring Donna Arthur calling her daughter a lifelong liar. That was despite the two having not seen each other for nearly 50 years. Arthur lost custody of her children in 1978 after her husband, their stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton when she was 12. Women will rule the Ohio elections. Acton wins strongly. I am not sure how Hindus ask for forgiveness from their deity, but Ramaswamy has lots of work to do.

Wisconsin.

What a fascinating and ever-changing campaign season Badger State voters have watched unfold this year. A primary-night election-party atmosphere for the books!! I did not see my pillow until 3 AM that morning. (A neighbor told me this week that when I see lights on in the kitchen at midnight come Election Night, do not worry; it just means another pot of coffee is being made.) David Crowley will defeat Tom Tiffany by 10.700 votes. Why the GOP thought putting a Trump election denier as their gubernatorial candidate has never been made clear to me. The voters, however, will explain to the GOP why that was a remarkably stupid idea.

Wisconsin State Legislature

State Senate

Democrats will capture the state senate from the Republicans.

5th Senate District

A spirited contest with Democrat Robyn Vining and Republican Mike Roberts will end with a strong message. Voters want a Democrat to carry their message to Madison. I find it amusing that Roberts isn’t associating himself with national politics or President Donald Trump, but he comes across to me as someone who could switch easily if it would benefit him politically.

17th Senate District

Republican Howard Marklein has met his match with Democrat Jenna Jacobson. In 2024, this largely rural district was reshaped. What was once a long, thin swathe of seven southern and western counties grew squatter and wider, losing more conservative northern counties and picking up parts of Dane and Crawford counties. Fair maps benefit voters and citizens. Maybe we can get some money in the next state budget for those who have benefited from sham-created districts for so long and now are jobless. (I realize with that last line I might need to eat something.) Welcome to the state senate, Jenna.

21st Senate District

Trevor Jung (left), a remarkable and skilled politician as evidenced in the past months of work, is facing Republican Jim Croft for the open seat. (Van Wanggaard seat.) Jung has come across as more in touch with real mom-and-dad type voters. Jung wins.

State Assembly

I will only tiptoe into this section of my predictions. I predict that the state assembly will remain in Republican control with a margin of three votes.

51st Assembly District

Democrat Ben Gruber (right) looks like the folks in the district he wishes to represent. Republican Todd Novak (left) is a really nice guy, but he has been there for years, and issues that were percolating when he first took office are still waiting for a solution. Voters have a right to expect more bang for their vote than platitudes and gentlemanly behavior. He is that nice. But Gruber wins in a squeaker of an outcome.

Ballot Initiatives.

Voters will face over 160 ballot measures nationwide this fall.  Some are patently designed by Republicans for the clearly brainless in the electorate who need to be lured to the polls. For instance, in Arkansas, the burning issues are “Only a citizen of the United States … may vote in an election in this state” and that the right to keep and bear arms is “a natural, fundamental, and individual right that shall not be infringed”. Taxpayers feel comfortable paying the salaries of legislators who would treat their constituents to such pablum, so fiscal accountability is obviously off the table in that state.

In Idaho, the gun fetish becomes a wet dream with voters being asked to pick one of the six historic firearms to choose as the official state gun. In Massachusetts, voters will be asked to uphold a 2024 law requiring all firearms to be serialized and registered with the state and broadening a ban on “assault-style” guns. I predict they say yes by a wide margin. This state can proudly claim it has one of the nation’s lowest gun ownership rates. The question will go to voters because NRA types gathered petition signatures to force a referendum.

In Michigan, voters will decide whether to hold a state constitutional convention. This is a dreadful idea that has its roots in conservatives wanting to have a culture war with gay rights, reproductive rights, and basic sanity. I predict it fails.

In Missouri, a measure to prohibit abortion in most cases and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors under eighteen. I predict, well, it is Missouri, so you know. In Nevada, voters will decide on a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability. I predict voters will accept the measure.

In Virginia, an issue that impacts many would-be voters. I predict voters will agree that people convicted of felonies must have their voting rights restored upon release from incarceration.

In Wisconsin, voters face three ballot measures. 1. Prohibit the governor from using the partial veto to create or increase any tax or fee; 2. Prohibit the government from closing gatherings at places of worship during declared emergencies, including public health emergencies; 3. Prohibit the government from discriminating or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin. All deserve a resounding No vote, but given the low media coverage of the measures and the way they are worded, I predict all will pass.

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I’ll end this set of predictions with something we can all agree about, whether we are liberals or not. There is an Election Day tradition at our home, other than voting, of course, and that is making Grandma’s Country Jam Cake. The cake became our traditional election dessert in 2004, and it has never failed to bring smiles to our election-night gatherings with friends, even if the returns are grim. When the cake is in the oven, I always hear Mom tell me to go outside and do my jumping around so the cake will not ‘fall’. Aw, yes, traditions never grow old. Here is the recipe. And of course, add Blue food dye to the frosting for that additional political mood-setter with the folks who stop by to watch the returns.

HAPPY ELECTION DAY!