Caffeinated Politics

The messy ending to the nation’s longest government shutdown was not to the liking of most Democrats, but it was probably inevitable given the state of play in Washington. The issue that propelled Democrats to take a stand is the dramatic premium increases for the ACA and the real threat that some in the nation will lose their health care coverage. What galled many, including the writer of this column, was that nothing was gained for the people needing to have relief from the impending cost increases. Democrats needed to stand with more resolve, and Republicans needed to understand where their future interests are to be found.

I mention that last point, as every county in Virginia increased its share of Democratic voters last Tuesday. In so doing, some history was made. Waynesboro in Augusta County went blue for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, but that must be put in context, as the last time that occurred was in 1965. Today I read the column by Chuck Todd, which places each political party’s situation following the elections and the reopening of the government into its proper context.

So while the “Democrats in disarray” storyline is getting more attention this week, it isn’t fractious enough to derail the party’s midterm strategy. The big ideological debate about the future of the party won’t happen until the 2027–28 Democratic presidential primaries.

Republicans, by contrast, are living inside a cult of personality. Their unity isn’t ideological or tactical. It’s gravitational — held together by one man. And the problem with cults of personality is that when the personality loses touch with reality, the whole structure begins to wobble.

That’s the political story we’re likely to watch unfold over the next six months: Democrats squabble but stay functional, focused on the task at hand — trying to win control of at least one chamber of Congress. Republicans, meanwhile, will begin to fracture as reality catches up to Trumpism. It’s only a matter of time before elected Republicans follow their voters — once they decide Trump’s economy isn’t working for them.

For now, however, there is no victory with the opening of the government for millions of Americans who rely on affordable health care. I heard from a friend minutes after news broke that a deal had been struck with seven Democratic senators and one independent, with a one-word summation. It was, she said, “Capitulation.” I simply could not fathom how they agreed to reopen the government without securing any concessions on the very issue that sparked the fight!

What is coming for those on ACA is skyrocketing premiums. The whole shutdown was not some mere symbolic partisan snit fest but designed to be leveraged to force Republicans who voted for massive tax cuts for the wealthy to not pay for those cuts on the back of health care. But here we are on the backside of the shutdown, as premiums will rise and ordinary Americans are left holding the bill. Democrats across the nation are rightfully angry. They fought for weeks, endured political backlash, and yet walked away empty-handed. The message seems clear. Weak-kneed Senators blinked, and now millions of Americans will pay the price.

Republicans, however, are hardly in a position to gloat from the wimpy actions of some Senate Democrats. Election night was a gut-punch, and the fact is the economic squeeze is hitting hardest in red counties, places that overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in 2024. These communities are not insulated from rising premiums, nor from the broader economic pressures that come with absurd tariffs. Yet their Dear Leader dismissed the increases as a “hoax,” a claim that rings hollow to families watching their monthly budgets collapse under the weight of health care costs, rising grocery bills, and news that the average age for a first-time homebuyer in the U.S. is now 40. Rising housing costs, student loans, and high rents are making it difficult to save, but Trump wishes no one to notice that reality.

What Chuck Todd wrote about the GOP is where I will be watching as House Speaker Mike Johnson’s House majority for vote-counting is far from secure. At least a dozen Republicans represent districts that Joe Biden carried in 2024. These lawmakers cannot afford to ignore the anger simmering among constituents who demand a workable solution to the ACA crisis. They are caught between a sick groveling loyalty to Trump’s rhetoric and the reality of voters who expect tangible relief. There are some popcorn-eating hours to come in the next four weeks as Congress grapples with reality.

Look, Republicans now face a reckoning. They can continue to dismiss the problem, or they can join Democrats in crafting reforms that stabilize premiums and restore faith in the ACA. The anger is bipartisan, even if the insane rhetoric from the White House is not. Both parties must recognize that health care is not a partisan luxury but simply a national necessity.

Finally, having followed politics for 50 years and having worked at grassroots organizing and in the state legislature, I accept the realities of the process. I do not always agree with how things are done or the outcomes, but there is s rhythm to the madness, and it is important to stay engaged and work within that maelstrom. But I know most people do not have such a perspective and so the news this week only adds another dose of cynicism to the mix of anxiety and financial strain. That is bad for everyone and our political institutions.

It has not been a good week to be in Washington or follow the news from Washington.