Today it was very apparent, after only a few minutes of reading columns and newsletters, just how damaged the Republican Party is as the November midterm elections near. Time magazine ended a column with this stark statement from a GOP operative. A simmering fear is that the trendlines may get even worse in the coming weeks. As one Republican strategist told me this week, Election Day cannot come quickly enough. With that as my starting point, let me offer you a sampling from my reading pile today.
From Raw America
On Wednesday, Republican Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), gave the Senate GOP a closed-door briefing warning his colleagues that 2026 will likely be way worse for the party than 2024.
In Iowa, which Trump won by more than a dozen percentage points just two years ago, conservative radio host Steve Deace said House Republicans in the Hawkeye State heard from their own pollsters that 15-point GOP legislative districts are within the margin of error, while 10-point districts are underwater. Deace warned that 2026 could be worse than the 2006 midterms, when then-President George W. Bush lost his Republican majorities due to opposition to his unpopular war in the Middle East.
Pat Kreitlow at UpNorth News writes.
And it’s not like Trump is going to be loyal to them. The landscape is littered with the decaying political carcasses of Republicans thrown under the bus by a leader who chooses self-preservation over loyalty every single time.
It’s like being on the wait staff of a place known to have lousy service — and their loyalty to the boss means nothing when he fires them for passing along customers’ complaints about the food.
Not that Tiffany and Van Orden would ask for my advice, but if they don’t start showing some real independence on behalf of their Wisconsin constituents, they shouldn’t be surprised to learn the real worth of their loyalty to an unpopular president.
Axios reports.
The Senate GOP campaign arm is making an extraordinary late ask — $8.9 million, to be exact — for three red states: Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, according to a memo sent today that we’ve obtained.
🚨 Why it matters: The request is yet another sign of the headwinds facing Republicans. In a good year, they wouldn’t be begging for millions to defend states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
- $1.2 million in Alaska, where Democratic nominee former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in the RealClearPolitics polling average by two percentage points.
- $4.2 million in Iowa, where Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson are separated by less than a percentage point in the RCP polling average.
- $3.5 million in Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has built a four-percentage-point lead over Sen. Jon Husted (R) in the RCP polling average.
The New York Times reports that Michigan and New Hampshire are leaning strongly for the Democratic senate candidates.
In Michigan, the party’s nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, has consolidated Democratic support despite worries about party unity after a divisive primary race. He leads his Republican opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, by five percentage points.
In New Hampshire, the Democratic nominee, Representative Chris Pappas, is running five points ahead of his Republican rival, former Senator John E. Sununu. The result could dampen Republican hopes that the state might be more competitive than expected.
G. Elliot Morris writes.
Republicans continue to slide in the polls. According to Elliott’s election model, Democrats now have about a 70% chance of winning complete control of Congress this November. Trump’s net approval (-28 on average) is nearly three times worse than it was before the 2018 midterms, and Republicans are sweating races like Kansas Senate and Oklahoma’s 5th District (the latter of which Trump won by 18 points in 2026).
Then there was this one paragraph in the midsection of Doug Sosnik’s newsletter that caught my attnetion.
The best indicator of the current state of the midterms is where the parties spend their time and money in the closing days of the campaign. In a Politico analysis of data from AdImpact, nearly two-thirds of advertising spending in the House is in districts held by Republican incumbents, with more than $110 million dollars spent in seats that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
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