Caffeinated Politics

The way independent voters align in Wisconsin’s August 11th primary and in the fall’s midterm election will make or break many a candidate. All we had to do this week was look at Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary to witness the heavy influence of the middle-of-the-road voters who refuse to wear a party jersey in a race.

The polls leading up to the primary election in Michigan showed that Abdul El‑Sayed, the democratic socialist‑leaning progressive, was cruising to a blowout win over the more moderate Haley Stevens. A raft of polls compiled in the final stretch showed El‑Sayed ahead by double digits—14, 17, 19 points, depending on which survey you grabbed. The RealClear-style averages had him up by about 10–12 points heading into Election Day. Then actual voters showed up, and the “landslide” shrank to a squeaker: El‑Sayed won by roughly one percentage point, a margin tight enough that news outlets waited until Wednesday morning to call it.

So what went wrong? The New York Times’ post‑mortem pointed to a familiar culprit: the way pollsters handled independents. In a state without party registration, pollsters had to guess who would turn out in a Democratic primary. Many surveys assumed independents would make up 30–40 percent of the electorate and treated them as a kind of progressive cavalry riding in for El‑Sayed. The problem is that voters who call themselves “independent” also tend to vote less frequently. They’re harder to reach, more likely to skip low‑salience primaries, and more likely to confound neat turnout models. When fewer independents showed up than the polls assumed, the progressive wave turned into a ripple.

Next up for politicos to talk and ponder is Wisconsin’s August 11 primary. For those reading outside our state, we have an open primary system that lets every voter walk in and choose a ballot on the spot but must vote in either the Democratic or Republican column. No crossover voting. The big question is what will the politically decisive independent voters do? Friday afternoon, in a conversation about the primary, a man said that voting models for Francesca Hahn that assume a large bloc of progressive‑leaning independents will turn out for her are akin to a winter weather forecaster who forgets to factor in lake‑effect snow in Milwaukee.

If we translate the Michigan model to Wisconsin and also wrongly assume independent voters are now racing in a highly ideological lane  (is that their nature?), we may see a similar outcome Tuesday night to what happened there. Additionally, Wisconsin is a state that has swung from Obama to Trump to Biden and back to crazyland in various combinations. If anyone is treating independents as predictable, they’re not smoking regular cigarettes.

Axios reported some interesting data this week on independent voters’ views of democratic socialist candidates and issues.

Independent voters support several key progressive ideas, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.

• 64% of independent registered voters say they support higher taxes for corporations and billionaires.
• 60% support government-provided health care for all Americans.

🌹 Yes, but: 43% of independents said they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist, as some progressives do.

I am very skeptical that social democrats can win the needed moderates in the all-important senate and gubernatorial elections this fall based on the state or congressional district they are seeking to win. Recall that the Democratic Party is roughly 60% moderate to conservative in their thinking. We will learn much more about that thought on Tuesday night.