Caffeinated Politics

(I posted this column as the flash drives in Milwaukee were being transported back to the central count location before being returned to the county courthouse to have results announced.)

Close election nights are democracy at its most caffeinated. (Pardon me for that cheap line.) But after the nailbiter of an uber-close precinct-by-precinct count of ballots in Wisconsin, then posted for enthused people at watch parties, or those lounging on a sofa in the living room or fretting the numbers in the kitchen over late dinner, everyone was jittery. As if they had consumed a few Espresso shots. Regardless of how one voted, everyone knew each ballot carried the weight of our state’s future direction.

We all watched our state transform into something that looked like an old-fashioned quilt; my feed had aqua for counties in the David Crowley column and violet for those won by Francesca Hong. But what accounted for the polls being so wrong about Hong’s power? How did Crowley fare so well in a wide swath of rural counties?

I was watching the data automatically refresh on The New York Times page, and by 9:30 it was clear Dane County was doing its usual thing, with a deep-blue voting total that some mutter about under their breath in the Northwoods. And once again the totals from Milwaukee County felt as if they were pacing for a marathon so they could make it to the finish line.

I had written a column on Saturday, August 8th, about polling models being used in Wisconsin to assess how voters intended to vote in the Democratic primary. I wondered whether results had missed independent voters’ intentions because they weren’t weighted enough in the polling questions.

If we translate the Michigan model to Wisconsin and also wrongly assume independent voters are now racing in a highly ideological lane (is that their nature?), we may see a similar outcome Tuesday night to what happened there. Additionally, Wisconsin is a state that has swung from Obama to Trump to Biden and back to crazyland in various combinations. If anyone is treating independents as predictable, they’re not smoking regular cigarettes.

Axios reported some interesting data last week on independent voters’ views of democratic socialist candidates and issues.

Independent voters support several key progressive ideas, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.

• 64% of independent registered voters say they support higher taxes for corporations and billionaires.
• 60% support government-provided health care for all Americans.
• Yes, but: 43% of independents said they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist, as some progressives do.

I think we understand, until we need to be reminded again, that elections are not predetermined. Independent voters reminded everyone Tuesday that persuasion still matters. That campaigns must earn trust rather than assume it. On a very tense but exciting election night in the Badger State, it was the independent voters who ensured the race was not called the way many polls had strongly predicted.

Wisconsin didn’t just vote on Tuesday. It watched itself vote. As I was flipping channels and reading online late at night, I thought about those years when working behind a radio studio microphone. I made promo spots urging people to cast their ballots and then listen to them count on the Big 94, WDOR-FM. I knew then, and even more so over the decades, that what really matters is that our state is fully engaged, fully invested, fully alive to the idea that democracy is not a spectator sport.

It’s a refresh‑button sport. (Give me that one without a smirk…is it late at this desk!)